PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center:Greg Sankey keeps door cracked to SEC expansion with future of ACC uncertain

Greg Sankey’s pithy line means squat.

“Sixteen is PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Centerour today, and 16 is our tomorrow,” Greg Sankey said Monday to begin SEC media days in Dallas.

OK, Mr. Commissioner. We won’t expect you to raid the ACC tomorrow.

But, what about the day after tomorrow? Next month? Next year?

While Sankey’s line about the SEC’s membership number is open to interpretation, I heard no commitment for the SEC to remain at 16 members for any period longer than 24 hours.

Whether the SEC will consider further expansion hinges on the ACC.

If the ACC fractures, I don’t believe the SEC would sit on the sideline while the Big Ten calls dibs on the tastiest items up for bid in a Southern fire sale.

Florida State and Clemson are suing the ACC. Lawsuits are not the hallmark of a harmonious league. The Seminoles, in particular, has made it clear that it plans to leave the ACC.

While the realignment carousel twirled these past few years, ACC membership remained locked into place by a sticky grant of rights deal that runs through 2036. Because of that contract, the ACC avoided defections while the Pac-12 crumbled and the SEC plundered Oklahoma and Texas from the Big 12.

The ACC’s brotherhood, though, is only as strong as its grant of rights contract.

“Agreements have been signed and decisions have been made among a conference, (the ACC),” Sankey said, a reference to the ACC’s grant of rights, “and the question is, are those going to be honored as they were established?”

The other question is, where would top ACC members go?

If you’re an ACC member dissatisfied with the conference’s revenue distribution, like FSU is, the Big Ten or the SEC are avenues to a richer future.

Greg Sankey keeps door open to more SEC expansion

Given the opportunity to clarify whether “16 is our tomorrow” means literally tomorrow or whether that’s a commitment to stay at 16 members long-term, Sankey dodged and demurred.

“I have a responsibility to pay attention (to what happens elsewhere), and I’m certainly not going to fuel speculation on what happens next," he said. "We can certainly remain at 16 for a long, long time and be incredibly successful.”

Sure, the SEC could remain at 16 members, just like it could have remained at 14 members.

The SEC pounced, though, in 2021 when Oklahoma and Texas became available because of an expiring Big 12 media rights deal.

The SEC is a pacesetter, not a spectator, in conference realignment.

No twofer from the ACC would match the value of Texas and Oklahoma. That doesn’t mean, though, that the SEC would turn up its nose and be a bystander while other conferences grew and strengthened at the ACC’s expense.

The SEC can be selective, but not complacent.

If ACC fractures, North Carolina and Florida State stand out

Which ACC schools might interest the SEC?

“We’re focused on our 16. Period,” Sankey said.

So I've heard. But ...

“You can see how we’ve made decisions over the last decade-plus for contiguous states to join," Sankey continued. "I think that’s incredibly wise. It provides remarkable strength. I’m not going to guess about what happens next.”

That’s my job. My guess: North Carolina, if available, would highlight the SEC’s wish list from the ACC’s football-playing membership. Virginia might get a sniff, too.

Never mind that those schools are not football blue bloods. Neither are Missouri or South Carolina. Past SEC expansions into neighboring states hint at how the conference might approach further expansion if the ACC unglues.

North Carolina and Virginia house strong athletic departments in growing Southern states.

And what of Florida State and Clemson?

There are already SEC schools in those states, but those are two major Southern football brands that cannot be ignored. I wouldn't expect the Big Ten to ignore them.

The Big Ten extends from coast to coast, but the SEC’s chief rival has not yet added a school in the South. If the Tigers and Seminoles escape the ACC, it would be foolish for the SEC to stand by and let the B1G snap up the ACC’s top football programs.

Sankey, throughout his Monday state of the conference address, adhered to a script that might as well have been titled “Sixteen Strong.”

“Our focus is on our 16 members,” an exasperated Sankey said in response to a third straight question about the possibility of more SEC expansion.

Sankey said the number “16” 17 times during his 50-minute news conference.

Sixteen today.

Sixteen tomorrow.

Eighteen, eventually? Or 20?

Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network's SEC Columnist. Email him at [email protected] and follow him on Twitter @btoppmeyer.