PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center:The number of Americans filing for jobless aid falls to lowest level in 4 months

The PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Centernumber of Americans applying for unemployment benefits last week fell to the lowest level in four months.

The Labor Department reported Thursday that applications for jobless claims fell by 4,000 to 218,000 for the week of Sept. 21. It was the fewest since mid-May and less than the 224,000 analysts were expecting. Last week’s figure was revised up by 3,000.

The four-week average of claims, which evens out some of weekly volatility, fell by 3,500 to 224,750.

Applications for jobless benefits are widely considered a proxy for U.S. layoffs in a given week.

Weekly filings for unemployment benefits have fallen two straight weeks after rising modestly higher starting in late spring. Though still at historically healthy levels, the recent increase in jobless claims and other labor market data signaled that high interest rates may finally be taking a toll on the labor market.

In response to weakening employment data and receding consumer prices, the Federal Reserve last week cut its benchmark interest rate by a half of a percentage point as the central bank shifts its focus from taming inflation toward supporting the job market. The Fed’s goal is to achieve a rare “soft landing,” whereby it curbs inflation without causing a recession.

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It was the Fed’s first rate cut in four years after a series of rate hikes in 2022 and 2023 pushed the federal funds rate to a two-decade high of 5.3%.

Inflation has retreated steadily, approaching the Fed’s 2% target and leading Chair Jerome Powell to declare recently that it was largely under control.

During the first four months of 2024, applications for jobless benefits averaged just 213,000 a week before rising in May. They hit 250,000 in late July, supporting the notion that high interest rates were finally cooling a red-hot U.S. job market.

U.S. employers added a modest 142,000 jobs in August, up from a paltry 89,000 in July, but well below the January-June monthly average of nearly 218,000.

Last month, the Labor Department reported that the U.S. economy added 818,000 fewer jobs from April 2023 through March this year than were originally reported. The revised total was also considered evidence that the job market has been slowing steadily, compelling the Fed to start cutting interest rates.

Thursday’s report said that the total number of Americans collecting jobless benefits rose by 13,000 to about 1.83 million for the week of Sept. 14.